There’s a great scene in a movie called “Deepwater Horizon”, where Mark Wahlberg’s character is talking to the BP representative played by John Malcovich, and he quips “It’s flawed thinking. It’s hope as a tactic.” It’s a great line, as it presages the disaster to come in the film, and precisely nails the entire cause of the Deepwater Horizon disaster.
Now I’m not saying that the proposal for Shelly Bay is going to be a disaster of that magnitude, but the sheer amount of hope being put into this by the Wellington City Council sure indicates that there might be problems that they’re trying to ignore, just like the folks at BP were trying to ignore.
When in doubt, I always loop back to the numbers. I suspect the Wellington City Council is a bit sick of me talking about the numbers, but to engineers and managers, they’re golden nuggets, the things that determine success or disaster.
Well, the developer has a few interesting numbers: they have 350 dwellings, each with 1 car park. There are also 122 public car parks available for the ratepayers who might want to enjoy the remaining small public space. Sounds good so far, until you do a well-pressure-check on the car parks. According to the last census there were 1.3 cars per household in Miramar. If you do the math, which is always tricky for developers and council types it seems, that’s 455 cars, of which 105 will need to be occupying the public car parks.
It looks like to me then that the poor public is only going to enjoy just 17 car parks when the residents are home (don’t even start talking about their guests). So when you hear about this being a gated community with everything but the gates, it sounds like a pretty accurate assessment.
When asked about this, the designers of the development mumbled about the downward trend in automobile ownership. Good! So maybe, indeed, we get a few car parks opening up, which is nice.
Yet, if fewer people are owning cars, how are they getting around? The City Council very specifically mentioned that there were to be no new bus routes, so… again, how are people getting around?
Wellingtons’ weather isn’t quite good enough for cycling all the time, and worse still, the road in and out is going to be difficult for cyclers, and is quite long for just popping out to the shops (it’s the reason why it’s enjoyed immensely by recreational cyclers!)
The developer seems to think that everyone is going to use the ferry, but that only works if the weather is nice, and you happen to want to go only to downtown or Eastbourne. So what about the rest of us? Well, the only real choice would then be something like Uber, or a taxi.
As soon as you do that, you’ve now just nearly DOUBLED the number of car trips these residents will be making: a car has to come pick them up, drive them into town, drive them back home, then that car has to leave the development. There will be some overlap between the in and out people, but as an upper bound, you’re talking 2X.
Which is important. Because the trip number ties into that infrastructure cost. And more importantly, the environmental cost. And the cost to cyclers. But that’s tomorrows’ tale.
Unh-uh. Hope ain’t a tactic Wellington City Council.
P.S.: Don’t forget to put your submission in by 5PM August 14, 2017!!